The rumblings I'm getting from many of the pundits that I allow access into my brain are implying that the only two with a chance to win president in 2020 are Biden and Bernie. While a Bernie-Biden battle going into the primary finals would be a fun battle to watch, I don't think either are the person we need sitting in the white house. I need to find some new voices....
if that's what the pundits are saying, then the Dems have a really tough road ahead. I don't think either of those two are electable in the long run. And that's before even getting into the whole "I thought the Republicans were the party of old white men" angle.
I think that the real problem for the Dems is that they have hitched their wagon to identity/victim politics for so long that it's almost all they have left in terms of platform and agenda. As a result, they are increasingly pressured from the very identity/victim groups they've been courting for so long into accepting, if not adopting, policy positions that are vehemently opposed by those who aren't nutjob crazies. For every young foolish idealist they snatch up via this process, they lose like 1.5 reasonable rational voters. The rise of folks like AOC in the party is pushing out the very voting block that cost them the election last time around: working and middle class blue collar workers.
The Dems need to figure out how to appeal to that group, not double down on the insanity. It's going to be incredibly hard for any candidate to thread that needle and manage to appeal to the young idealists while not pushing away the folks who care about things like their paychecks, mortgage costs, health care costs, providing for their children, having jobs still available in 10 years, heck even having a "plan" they can look to that goes more than 6 months into the future. Once you get out of your turmoil ridden teen and young adult years, you really do want things to stabilize a bit. You want to know what things are going to be like down the road so you can plan your life. What the far left is arguing for would introduce yet more chaos that a lot of voters just aren't going to want.
And those are the voters the Dems need. I suppose if they could find someone who fit the identity checkboxes but wasn't defined by them, they might be able to pull it off. But the problem is that if you are a Dem and a member of any of those identity groups, you kinda have to be defined by that. You can't be a female Democrat without being fully behind every feminist group. You can't be a black Democrat without being fully behind every single black based organization, no matter how out there. Ditto for all other groups. And as some of those groups get more loud and more fringe, they (the politicians, not the groups) find themselves unable to ever say "no" to them. Again, no matter how nutty the positions and proposals are.
The Democrats need to be able to tell the voters where
they stand, not just what
they stand for. It's easy to say you're for a cleaner environment. But clearly stating where in the spectrum of possible positions on the issue you are is harder. Identifying where the balance between cost to implement and value of the action proposed is difficult. But, IMO, it's necessary. And the Dems just have a hard time doing it. Even the folks getting cornered on the whole NGD thing are having to fall back to half statements, and vagueness to try to wiggle out. It's clear they don't agree with the whole set of proposals, but they can't actually say so openly and publicly. And as long as that's the case, the Dems are going to struggle with this.
Doesn't mean they can't succeed. Just that it's going to either require someone with just the right message, or a whole lot of blatant lying and folks looking the other way until the election is over. It could happen though. Edited, Mar 21st 2019 11:48am by gbaji