Point of clarification: If the SCotUS is deadlocked on an issue, the lower court ruling stands but it only affects the district where that court has authority. So if the 7th Circuit Court found it legal for me polyamorously marry lesbian gophers (they warned us this would happen!) and the SCotUS was deadlocked, it would remain legal for me but only in Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin.
In the case of the environmental regs, the case is being heard by the DC Circuit Court. However, the question is "Can the administration (based in DC) make these regulations?". If they decide "yes" then the administration is free to make those regulations even though they apply to the entire nation.
Early on, I think the nomination issue is perhaps better for the Democratic side: Clinton is framing it as the GOP delegitimizing Obama's presidency which should do wonders with the black GOP vote (and the stonewalled nominee will likely be a woman and/or minority). The most well known SCotUS rulings from the last decade -- Citizens United, Ogburn, Hobby Lobby, etc -- put the public on the Democratic side. The exception might have been the ACA ruling if only Roberts hadn't been the deciding vote although 60-65% of the public supported that ruling as well. So the "What kind of SCotUS do you want?" question seems to favor Democrats. Finally, the public seems to favor process over partisanship: pass a budget even if it means funding Planned Parenthood, raise the debt ceiling without strings attached, etc. The reasons for the GOP to oppose bringing a nominee out are nakedly partisan and I think the majority will oppose it even as the GOP is trapped by their base into continuing the deadlock. Oh, yeah, and as I said the whole "GOP Congress works!" schtick is blown out of the water with this. Expect it to bleed over and shit will be accomplished this year.
That's just off the cuff. I guess if a poll comes out tomorrow showing that 70-30 supports waiting to make a nomination until the next administration I'll be changing my perspective accordingly.
Edit: It's also worth noting that, in trying to defend the Senate from takeover, it's likely that an unpopular GOP stonewall of Obama's nominee will hurt them in states like Illinois and Ohio where GOP senators are trying to portray themselves as moderates.
Edited, Feb 14th 2016 8:58am by Jophiel
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Belkira wrote:
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.