Mythic VP Mark Jacobs Predicted WAR's Doom?

Earlier in the week when Mythic announced that they'll be shutting down 63 Warhammer Online servers, it was clear that things with the game are getting progressively worse.

Over the course of our lives, I'm sure we've all said things that, given the chance, we'd really like to take back. Marie Antoinette would probably like to rescind her cake-bread faux pas (historical legitimacy aside), George W. Bush might wish that he hadn't talked to the press at all (although you could argue that incoherency is a valid tactic), and while Republican Chairman Michael Steele is hilariously adroit at saying things and taking them back, even he suffers from the consequences of both.

Looking to our own MMO world, perhaps another individual who would like to join this list is Mark Jacobs, VP of Mythic and lead designer of Warhammer Online. You see, way back in August of '08, Jacobs granted an interview to MTV Multiplayer, where he went on to say:

"The corollary to that is if you've seen a game consolidate servers, you know it's in deep, deep trouble - that's not a healthy sign for an MMO," he said, citing Sony's January-released "Pirates of the Burning Sea" as a recent example. "It will be the same for 'Warhammer.' Look at us six months out. Look at us six weeks out. If we're not adding servers, we're not doing well."

Well, it's been six months now, and in a coincidence of both awkward and epic proportions, Mythic has announced the closure of 63 Warhammer Online servers, 43 in North America and 20 in Europe.

Ouch.

While Jacobs has managed to defuse troubling layoff numbers - attributing the staff reductions to the "move from a pre-launch to a post-launch size" - getting caught by his own words is probably going to prove more difficult to parry.

WHAT LITTLE THERE IS

Is this an indication that Warhammer Online is in trouble?

In the '08 interview previously mentioned, Jacobs also said that he wanted WAR to be "no less than number two" in the MMO industry, but numbers indicate that Mythic's latest MMO is about 200,000 shy of old-timer FFXI's 500,000 subscriber base.

Massively.com's Brook Pilley has also argued that, despite Jacob's sugar-coated "State of the Game" address, it's a little bit bizarre when "someone can spin nearly 1,000 bug and polish fixes into a good thing (especially at the six-month point in the game's life cycle)."

Finally, as any former WAR player ("Pwyffy Pwyfftastic of Order!") may have seen, Mythic has been emailing players who left the game more than 30 days ago, enticing them with 10 days of free game time, free items, bonus XP and renown, and the opportunity to "see why WAR is better than ever."

In the end, while Mythic's behaviour is indicative of a company which is "in deep, deep trouble" (according to Jacobs), at least their 300,000 subscriber mark is well above other floundering MMOs. On the other hand, while I'm relatively certain that a team backed by EA is not going to die, if Mythic's latest attempt at bolstering their player base does not succeed, Jacob's own words may soon prove to be prophetic.

Comments

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WAR in Europe
# Mar 19 2009 at 6:35 PM Rating: Decent
Well here's the reason WAR has failed so miserably in Europe...

GOA

That's it, that is all...
Piece of Trash Editorial
# Mar 14 2009 at 2:16 AM Rating: Default
Gotta love the way the WoW media pile on because really, that's all this piece of trash editorial is about.

Jacobs has a big mouth and many don't care for him. His game is not WoW and it will never develop the kind of subscriber base that WoW has. WoW's a phenom, but not because it's particularly innovative. It was a second generation MMO that was blessed with two things - an existing fan base from the Warcraft games and timing - online gaming exploded right about the time WoW released. These new gamers shunned the old first gen classics - AC, EQ and UO and skipped over the games that came in between - DAoC and AO - and went straight to WoW.

Warhammer's a decent game. It had a pretty solid launch and it plays pretty damn well now. It has issues in its end game and could use new content (and no, I don't feel new classes constitutes new content) which will be coming in April/May with the upcoming Tomb Kings patches. I expect the base to grow and this game to continue to improve. But it will never be WoW.

And as far as consolidating servers, it was done for one very simple reason. Too many servers for the existing subscriber base in a game that demands heavily populated servers.

Warhammer's Problem
# Mar 13 2009 at 7:26 AM Rating: Decent
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76 posts
The problem with Warhammer is that it's not a good game. There's nothing truly innovative about it. They made it a PvP heavy game and I think that they overestimated how many people are that serious about PvP. In order for a new MMORPG to be great, it needs to appeal to both PvP and PvE players, as well as move the genre forward, and Warhammer didn't do that. If I were Mythic then I would go back to the drawing board and create a game that is highly innovative in both PvP and PvE. Make a game that's very appealing to both sets of players and do something that no one has seen before in an MMORPG. That is the only way that a MMORPG can separate itself from the very large pack of MMORPG's. Right now market is flooded with MMORPG's. If someone adds their game to the mix and it looks like it's just another game then it's going to struggle. It has to stand out and Warhammer doesn't stand out.
Warhammer's Problem
# Mar 16 2009 at 9:20 AM Rating: Decent
[quote]The problem with Warhammer is that it's not a good game. There's nothing truly innovative about it.quote]

Not a good game? Start over? I hope you actually played the game because I couldnt disagree with you more. Anyone who's played the current crop of MMO's, should be able to say honestly say that WAR is easily the second best MMO out right now. Let someone who's been playing from the beginning break it down for you. They did alot of things very well. The game looks great. It's easy to get into. All the classes (no matter how you spec), are useful in pve and pvp. Innovative? Their public quest system and their tome of knowledge/quest log/achievement tracker should be in every mmo from here on out.

That said, although some things were out of their control, they did hurt themselves early on in major ways. Intuitively, people know that a pvp based game as open as WAR depends heavily on a somewhat balanced, and large population. Of course Mythic knew this and worried that the bad side would be outnumbered (Horde anyone?), so they marketed Destruction heavily and it worked. . .too well. They saw early on from beta testing that the player base was trending heavily Destruction, but they essentially bet that naturally Order would get a greater influx as more casual players came to the game at launch and instinctively choose the "good" side. They were wrong, and across most servers you had one side always at anumerical idsadvantage. Now their isnt much they could do about what side folks chose, but the bigger mistake they made was the number of servers they had at launch. They had way too many , and it scattered the new player base all over. So the folks who landed on the handful of well populated servers had a fanstastic time, but the others on the bulk of sparsely populated servers experienced a much different, way weaker game and Mythic lost hundreds of players becuase of it. They should have started with about 1/3 the number of servers, and put more up as the player base grew. That way, they could have engineered population balance.

Some folks complain about the bugs, and some were real bad, but what mmo starts out/remains bug free? Other than needing to work on server pop blance, and increading the pve and challenge level at end game, WAR does what it set out to do well.
Warhammer's Problem
# Mar 19 2009 at 4:17 PM Rating: Decent
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76 posts
Quote:
Not a good game? Start over? I hope you actually played the game because I couldnt disagree with you more. Anyone who's played the current crop of MMO's, should be able to say honestly say that WAR is easily the second best MMO out right now. Let someone who's been playing from the beginning break it down for you. They did alot of things very well. The game looks great. It's easy to get into. All the classes (no matter how you spec), are useful in pve and pvp. Innovative? Their public quest system and their tome of knowledge/quest log/achievement tracker should be in every mmo from here on out.



I never said it was a bad game, just that it's not a good game. I didn't mean to imply that it was Dark and Light or some other craptacular game like that. But it is an average game in a very diluted pool of MMORPG's. You cite the public quest system as innovation and that's exactly why WAR is an average game. When the public quest system is the most innovative thing that they can come up with then there is really nothing truly innovative about the game.

I don't mean to single out WAR but since this article is about WAR, I decided to focus on WAR in my original reply. If WAR really is the second best game on the market, that doesn't necessarily speak to how good WAR is(since I believe that it really isn't a that good of a game) but more to how bad every other game on the market is. All we can compare WAR to is what's already out on the market, not what games are going to potentially come out in the future made with better game engines that allow for real innovation. That's why I think WAR is an average game. Not because of what it is, compared to other games already out there, but because of what it could have been. I feel the same way about WAR that I do about LoTRO. Those are two games that I think really should have waited until better engines were out there before they were developed. They are two great franchises that deserve better than to have their names attached to average games. It's like instead of taking the time to make a truly innovative game, they just decided to go for a cash grab after seeing how successful WoW has been. You may disagree with me and that's fine, but I'm just disappointed with WAR knowing that it could have been a much better game if they had just put more time into developing the engine and the game.
Warhammer's Problem
# Mar 13 2009 at 5:14 PM Rating: Decent
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5,644 posts
Nimrook wrote:
There's nothing truly innovative about it.

There was nothing innovative about WoW either, didnt stop it.
Warhammer's Problem
# Mar 19 2009 at 5:58 PM Rating: Decent
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76 posts
Quote:
There was nothing innovative about WoW either, didnt stop it.


That's true. WoW is a pretty average game too. But the difference in WoW and WAR is that WoW had great timing. When WoW came out, the market wasn't diluted with MMORPG's. There was Everquest and FF and Lineage and Ultima and a few others but nothing compared to how many games were already on the market when WAR came out. And most importantly there wasn't already a game that was any where near as successful as WoW has become. MMORPG's up until that point just targeted the niche crowd. What WoW did was make a conscious effort to expand their player base beyond that niche group. Their strategy wasn't to make a great game, but make a game that would attract as many people as possible. Which is why Blizz continues to dumb down WoW more and more.

WAR came out in a very diluted market and instead of trying to maximize their player base as much as possible, they limited their player base by making a game catered to the PvP crowd, which they obviously overestimated. If you're going to limit your player base like that then you better make a great game. You have to stand out from the crowd an WAR doesn't stand out. WoW doesn't really stand out either as far as the actually game goes but again, they made up for it with great timing and great marketing. WAR will never have the luxury of great timing but that doesn't mean that they can't make up for that with true innovation and a game that they can market to everyone, not just a specific niche.
Fine
# Mar 12 2009 at 10:23 PM Rating: Decent
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5,644 posts
MMOs that merge servers can do fine, EQ2 merged its servers years ago, same with EQ, both are still fine.

Servers merge for different reasons, now if you only had say 3 servers to begin with and your merging down to one that maybe be a bad sign.
Fine
# Mar 13 2009 at 12:47 PM Rating: Good
Quote:
MMOs that merge servers can do fine, EQ2 merged its servers years ago, same with EQ, both are still fine.

Servers merge for different reasons, now if you only had say 3 servers to begin with and your merging down to one that maybe be a bad sign.


Nobody is saying the game is crashing and burning, soon to annihilate itself in a fiery oblivion of total obscurity. It'll probably stabilize about where it is now, maybe bleed off some more customers, and retain their current status as a second- or third- tier MMO.

Servers merge because you don't have enough players playing on them. There is no 'different reasons'. This may be because you either don't have nearly the total population base you thought you did, or because the population that you do have is far more concentrated (usually both)... but they don't mysteriously build servers to hold 2000 people apiece and then merge them because they'd rather have each server holding, say, 5000 players instead since it's more aesthetically pleasing.
Fine
# Mar 13 2009 at 11:42 PM Rating: Decent
The difference is, that "not enough players" means different things depending on which game you're talking about. In WAR's case, they want 20,000 players per server not because it's aesthetically appealing, but because WAR's endgame requires a large amount of people to work. Other games might technically be able to run a server at a much lower population and the only reason they would have to close one is because it was no longer economically viable to run the server. If WAR was a PvE game - Mark Jacobs said himself - he would have kept those servers open. In truth, the playerbase had been begging for server mergers for months, Mythic just didn't want bad media and the stigma associated with what is a very necessary practice in WAR's case. After the initial batch of players left (those who wouldn't have stayed anyway) and then a load of people left to try WotLK, many people were stuck on underpopulated servers in a game that requires large groups of people to participate in many activities.
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