Election PredictionFollow

As the general election is near, what do you think will happen?

1. Vote percentages will be too close to call, requiring us to wait for mail in ballots.

2. Vote percentages will be wide enough a part where we can safely assume a winner while waiting for the final count.


At first, I was thinking #1, but with all of the record breaking turnouts and early voting, we might be at #2.

If Biden wins, likely #2, if Trump wins likely #1.

Biden has many paths to electoral success where Trump only has narrow paths that can get shut off or safely assumed to be shut off. For example, if Trump wins FL or NC, the night continues but if Biden wins FL or NC, you can call it done because there's no real model where Biden wins NC but doesn't also win the upper Midwest and probably Arizona as well. So a Trump win likely requires waiting a while to see if he's shut off but a Biden win could quickly become apparent.

Plus, some of the states Trump would need to win won't start counting their early/absentee ballots until polls close on Election Day. So we might not know if Trump wins Pennsylvania for a few days but we'll know whether or not it matters (because Biden secured 270) earlier than that.

People are concerned if he wins again. I'm more concerned of the lame duck session if he loses. Best case scenario, he just denies the outcome and try some losing legal battles. Worst case scenario, he accepts his loss and tries to burn everything down on his way out.