If Biden wins, likely #2, if Trump wins likely #1.
Biden has many paths to electoral success where Trump only has narrow paths that can get shut off or safely assumed to be shut off. For example, if Trump wins FL or NC, the night continues but if Biden wins FL or NC, you can call it done because there's no real model where Biden wins NC but doesn't also win the upper Midwest and probably Arizona as well. So a Trump win likely requires waiting a while to see if he's shut off but a Biden win could quickly become apparent.
Plus, some of the states Trump would need to win won't start counting their early/absentee ballots until polls close on Election Day. So we might not know if Trump wins Pennsylvania for a few days but we'll know whether or not it matters (because Biden secured 270) earlier than that.
Wow. Regular ol' Joph fan club in here.